While hurricane season is still two months away, researchers are already predicting an active summer and fall. Colorado State University climatologists predicted 18 named storms of which nine will result in hurricanes.
At times when it can be difficult to predict the weather for the day, OK Generators is curious as to how researchers can predict months in advance. In fact, different researchers have different methods for developing their forecasts and statistical models.
One model is referred to as the “Lasso methodology.” Refraining from getting too technical, this model shows the hurricane positioning and intensity of previous years, along with temperatures of past weather patterns. By using advanced technology, it is able to evaluate and predict future seasons.
Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University use current weather conditions for future predictions. The warm weather in the tropical Atlantic leads to warmer waters. Therefore, the combination of warmer temperatures, weak trade winds and low pressure at the surface are conducive to tropical storm formation.
From Lasso methodologies to Atlantic conditions and satellites to Doppler radar, we are fortunate to have such technologies, allowing us to prepare and be safe during times of extreme weather. Stay tuned to our blog for preparation of these storms and ways to remain with power during an active hurricane season.